About

I am a Ph.D. candidate in Economics at the University of Amsterdam and the Tinbergen Institute. My research focuses on housing markets, immigration, and fiscal policy.

I use administrative and macroeconomic data to study housing markets and fiscal policy. My research examines the relationship between house prices and rents, the role of socio-economic factors and credit conditions in the Dutch housing market, and the effects of tax-based consolidation on local labour markets in Italy.

You can find my CV here.

Feel free to contact me at f.paoloni2@uva.nl.

Research

Income heterogeneity of immigrants and house price dynamics
with Lisa M. Timm. Data access funded by "A Sustainable Future" (ASF) grant.
The long-run relationship between house prices and rents in OECD countries
Show Abstract
I test whether house prices and rents are related in the long and short run using a new quarterly dataset for 18 OECD countries from 1968 to 2021. If agents treat houses as assets, annual rents correspond to the yearly net present value of house expenses, a function of prices. It follows that house prices and rents should be positively related. I find evidence of cointegration in only half of countries using Johansen tests. I observe a negative response of rents to a positive shock in house prices. Two factors might explain these results: heterogeneity in house quality reducing dwellings' comparability, and rental sector size relieving demand pressure on rental prices.
Tax-based fiscal consolidation and the labor market: evidence from Italy
Show Abstract
This paper examines the labor market consequences of tax-based fiscal consolidation in Italy over the period 2006–2019. Exploiting municipality-level data on personal income tax declarations and labor market outcomes across 579 local labor markets (LLMs), combined with the narrative fiscal shock series of Alesina, Favero, and Giavazzi (2020), we estimate impulse response functions using local projections instrumented by a Bartik shift-share design. Our identification strategy leverages cross-sectional variation in pre-existing tax intensity interacted with nationally-determined consolidation shocks, isolating the causal effects of direct tax increases from endogenous responses to local business cycles. The results reveal a one-percentage-point increase in direct taxes raises unemployment and suppresses employment rates over a four-year horizon.
Family loans and housing market overbidding: evidence from the Netherlands,

Contact

Email:
f.paoloni2@uva.nl

Office:
University of Amsterdam
Amsterdam School of Economics
Roetersstraat 11
1018 WB Amsterdam, Netherlands